Understanding Gender, Party, Education and Public Opinion about Abortion Policy

• Kristen Daley, Political Science, University of Delaware

• Erin Cassese, Political Science, University of Delaware

Following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, abortion has become an increasingly salient and polarizing topic in American politics. As the 2024 election approaches, Democrats have centralized the issue in their campaigns, while Republicans are paying abortion less attention. These strategies are based on expectations about the issue positions held by key voting blocs and the importance these groups place on reproductive rights. Is there empirical evidence to support these expectations? Previous scholarship has found an inconsistent relationship between gender and abortion issue positions over time and has tended to overlook group differences based on educational attainment. Beyond this, there is limited research on issue importance – the prioritization of candidates positions on abortion relative to other issues when casting one’s vote. To better understand these factors, we analyze longitudinal data from the American National Election Studies (1980-2022). Our descriptive analysis uncovers no evidence of an overall gender gap in abortion issue positions in the electorate as a whole. However, gender and education are more closely tied to abortion attitudes in the Democratic Party compared to the Republican party, though all Democrats are increasingly converging toward the position that abortion should “always be permitted”. Our analysis uncovered a consistent and significant gender gap in abortion importance, with women prioritizing the issue more than men. This gap is found among college-educated individuals of both parties, but not among people with no college degree. The importance of abortion increased in the Democratic party and decreased in the Republican Party post-Dobbs. For both parties, the changing importance of abortion is significant to political strategy as campaigns choose whether or not to centralize abortion. Further research is necessary to understand the long-term effects of the Dobbs decision on public opinion gender gaps in both parties.